On Plugged In… America’s military foothold in Asia… may be slipping. (Rodrigo Duterte, Philippine President) “The Americans are very rude” Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte… Ending a major security pact… allowing US forces to train on Philippine soil. (Donald Trump, US President) “That’s OK, we’ll save a lot of money” US president Donald Trump… is downplaying the importance of the Visiting Forces Agreement. But military officials… say it could be a major turning point.. for US strategy in the region. What happens… to America’s military presence in the Pacific? And what could it mean for China’s ambitions… in the South China Sea? When Plugged In examines… “US Philippine Relations: At A Crossroads” (GRETA) Hello and welcome to Plugged in. I'm Greta Van Susteren. Once a reliable military ally, the Philippines appears poised to turn its back on a long standing military agreement with the United States. Earlier this month, Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte announcing his decision to end the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States. That agreement, the VFA, allows American soldiers visa-free access to train at military bases in the Philippines. Top American military officials say this decision is a major misstep in US Philippine relations. But we begin with a brief history of the colorful and sometimes contentious relationship between the two countries. More from Plugged In's Mil Arcega. “A Deep Rooted History” It’s a relationship that dates back to 1898 – to the end of the Spanish American War, when Spain ceded colonial control of the islands to the United States. The American occupation would lead to a brutal struggle – the Philippine American war – resulting in the deaths, by some estimates, of as many as a million Filipino citizens. But under American guidance, the Philippines became an autonomous commonwealth in 1935 – gaining its independence in 1946 – and adopting many of the same democratic and political institutions as the United States. Since then – the Philippine islands have been pivotal to America’s presence in Asia and the Pacific. Because of its location and its strategic importance, the capital Manila - is home to the only Veteran’s Administration office and the largest American military cemetery outside the United States. In 1998 – the two countries signed the Visiting Forces Agreement, giving the US government jurisdiction over its military personnel – and removing Visa and passport restrictions for American troops deployed to the Philippines. The US has also been an important ally in the war against Islamic militants in the Southern islands. Today - more than 20 US bases and military facilities – occupying over 90,000 hectares of land - house an estimated 25,000 US military and civilian dependents in the Philippines. While relations between the two countries run deep - US military presence in the islands have long been a source of tension for many Filipinos… one fraught with cultural grievances and the complexities of their shared 120-year history. (For Plugged In – Mil Arcega VOA News) (GRETA) Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is downplaying the Philippine government's notice to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement. Trump says ending the pact will save U.S. taxpayers a lot of money. But analysts say it would also hurt U.S. credibility and create another opportunity for China to expand its influence in the region. More from VOA Senior White House Correspondent Patsy Widakuswara. “Present Day Relations” For decades American and Filipino soldiers have trained together, under the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement.   President Donald Trump said the U.S. has been instrumental in helping the Philippines fight the Islamic State terror group, but dismissed Manila’s notice to terminate the VFA, saying the move will save the U.S. “a lot of money”. ((President Donald Trump)) "My relationship, as you know, it's a very good one with their leader, and we'll see what happens. They'll have to tell me that."   ((NARRATOR))  Trump’s statement contradicts his Secretary of Defense, who says the VFA termination runs counter to efforts urging China to abide by international norms in the region.   Earlier this week, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte made the announcement, after criticizing Washington's reported decision to cancel the U.S. visa of his former National Police Chief. ((Casualties of drug war, activists condemning drug war, Reuters VAANH1G07))   The former police official enforced Duterte's war on drugs, which killed thousands and is condemned by human rights group. ((Rodrigo Duterte, Philippines President))  “Trump and others are trying to save the Visiting Forces Agreement. I said I didn't want. The Americans are very rude." ((NARRATOR)) Unless a new deal is reached, the VFA will terminate in six months. While many within the security establishment in Manila and Washington want to maintain the pact, resistance from both leaders may make it difficult. ((Gregory Poling, Center for Strategic and International Studies)) “Rodrigo Duterte hates the Americans, wants to align the Philippines with China, and has been saying the Visiting Forces Agreement should go for decades. Donald Trump, despises alliances in general, thinks they're a waste of money, and just said that he doesn't care if an alliance ends. All of that is very consistent.   ((NARRATOR))  The Philippines is the oldest U.S. treaty ally in the Pacific, older even than the Japanese or Korean alliance.   ((Gregory Poling, Center for Strategic and International Studies)) ((XDCam today, TC to come))  “If the narrative becomes that the Philippines walked away because they saw the Americans as a paper tiger, then that becomes self-reinforcing. It starts to raise questions about U.S. credibility throughout the region. The second, maybe more immediate impact is that it really empowers China to do whatever it wants in the South China Sea. Because without access to the Philippines, the closest U.S. ground based military power is 1300 nautical miles away in Okinawa. That is hardly an effective deterrent.”   ((NARRATOR))  Analysts say not having American troops in the Philippines may hamper intelligence gathering and counter terror operations. And could mean a slower American response to help the region deal with natural disasters.   (GRETA) Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte says he's not worried about potential disruptions to his country's counter-terrorism efforts. He adds his decision was based partly on the US government imposing travel and financial restrictions against Philippine officials. Here in the U.S., still no word on possible talks to salvage the VFA agreement. Joining us from the White House to talk about the political and security ramifications is senior VOA White House correspondent Patsy Widakuswara. GVS: Patsy, Nice to see you. And Patsy is this more of a grudge match between President Duterte and President Trump, he says United States is rude, or is this because Philippines want to get more independent, want to lean towards China? PW: Well, certainly the personality aspect of both leaders do play a part in this kerfuffle as we say. because as we know that President Trump you know surprised his aides when he basically said that to me it doesn't matter if they walk away It will save us a lot of money. This is contradictory to what his secretary of defense Mark esper said just the day before, when he said that this is a wrong move, a move in the wrong direction by the Philippines. and even just hours earlier before President Trump said that he didn't mind for the Philippines to walk away, his deputy Deputy Press Secretary Hogan Gidley as well as members of his national security team told me that they were trying to get the Philippines back into the negotiation table. now president duterte himself has always been an anti American, he has been years trying to disengage from the American alliance and align himself closely to China. so yes personality does take in, take into account, Does go into account into this calculation. but certainly for the Philippines, this is something that they have wanted to do, to align themselves closer to China, while for the US, the President has basically very little regard in terms of military alliance, particularly in the region in Southeast Asia, despite the fact that the US has a free indo Pacific strategy, GVS: patsy, the 1998 VFA is not the only sort of alliance that we've had with the Philippines. it's gone back decades has it not? where we've had the military support to where the Philippines and training. PW: Yes, absolutely. And this VFA agreement is not just an agreement that allows you know once or twice a year kind of exercises between American troops and Filipino troops. there is hundreds of exercises that they do together every year. and this is, this will all be in jeopardy. And don't forget that this will also mean that there's going to be less capacity less capability for the US for intelligence gathering in the region, for counter terror operations in the region and of course, things like what I mentioned before in my package, helping the Philippines to mitigate disasters. So this is, a lot of people see this, a lot of analysts see this as a lose lose situation for both the US as well as the Philippines, and as well as the region, not only in terms of containing China, but also affecting other countries like Indonesia, like Malaysia like Vietnam, all these regional countries who will take the brunt of Philippines which for example has more terrorist groups, like Abu Sayyaf could spill over to Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, so this really has a lot of repercussions in the region, GVS: Patsy, the United States though isn't left high and dry in the region. they have Japan they have South Korea. And the president says it's going to save a lot of money for the taxpayers I don't know if that's true or not. But has the president or the White House put any money figure on this. PW: Yeah, so they have not given us an exact figure. but yes he is right in terms of this is one of those relationship, one of those alliances where the US puts in money to the Philippines, and the Philippines does not give anything in return, other than this very strategic base where the US military can operate from. So there's other alliances in the region, as you said, you know South Korea, as well as Japan, but the Philippines is particularly strategic because of its location in the South China Sea. And don't forget that the Philippines is also a party or one of the parties that are involved in the conflict with China, as well as several other countries in the region in the South China Sea, particularly in the Spratly Islands. So if the Philippines is aligning itself closer to China and the US has less capability to insert itself in that dynamic that's definitely a minus for the US as far as the analysts that I've talked to are concerned. Thank you Patsy Widakuswara, VOA senior White House correspondent. (GRETA) So what happens to American military personnel now in the Philippines? And how might this impact US military strategy in Asia and the Pacific? VOA's Pentagon correspondent Carla Babb has been looking into this for us. She is back from the Munich Security Conference in Germany, where US Defense Secretary Mark Esper delivered remarks. GVS: Welcome back to the United States Carla. CB: Thank you. Good to be back. GVS: Alright, so you had a chance to hear from the Secretary of Defense, Esper. What did he say about this? CB: Well as, as he just touched on it, he said that it was very unfortunate. We actually asked about this twice right after it happened. And then after he had had a couple days to think about it. And then when I asked him in Munich, he again reiterated that it was unfortunate but he didn't seem too worried. Let's take a listen. (Mark Esper, US Secretary of Defense) “This would be a move in the wrong direction but we have time to respond and work with them on the way forward. And I'm hopeful that given the long-standing ties between our militaries, between our peoples, between our countries will endure. And we'll just take it one step at a time.” CB: And defense officials that I spoke with did say that there has been some posturing involved with this. That this was potentially a nuclear response to a very small issue. But they know that they have 180 days to work this out. GVS: You know, it's sort of interesting that the, we just listened to what Secretary Esper said, and the Filipino military also doesn't want the VFA to go away. It's Duterte saying this to President Trump. Duterte says, the United States is rude. They've done the saber rattling, so 180 days is, I mean, is it really sort of strategic, or is this about that visa that wasn’t awarded the Filipino official? CB: A lot of people think that this is very much to do with that visa and this is Duterte acting out. But you take a step back, this has been bubbling up since 2016, since Duterte first came into office. He's made no qualms about how he feels about America. He does not like the American Alliance. He feels that there are war games going on the Philippines whenever the US comes in and carries out exercises. And you can see this play out because I was there with Secretary Carter when he had his visit to the Philippines, in 2016. They announced a new agreement with new, new access to bases, five different bases. We went out to one, Antonio Bautista out at Palawan in the South China Sea. We hopped on a carrier. They had joint exercises in the South China Sea together for the first time in 2016. Then Duterte took office and all of a sudden he says we don't want the US forces in the sSouth of the Philippines for carrying out counterterrorism exercises. He said that right as Secretary Carter was in ASEAN in Hawaii, with the Filipino defense minister who walked that back as much as he could. Carter at the time said that the relationship was ironclad, and then it started to go away. But then you look in 2017, and you see how Balikatan, which is that big exercise that the US and the Philippines have every year; 5000 to 10,000 US and Filipino troops - that was changed a little bit. Normally it's unconventional warfare, because Duterte they said that they were war games they scaled it back and focused on humanitarian issues and humanitarian exercises. But again, a couple of exercises were cancelled and then in 2018, 2019, everything was back to normal. You saw no changes to Balikatan, nothing. So we've seen this before and you just have to wait and see whether or not this is going to be huge, or if the US are going to be able to weather this with the Philippines again as they did in 2016 and 2017 and things will go back to normal. GVS: Right, so Duterte has given notice, 180 days. We’re a couple were five or 10 days into this. What kind, I mean if this were to hold, if the United States and the Philippines can't work this out, what kind of assets are in the region, what would the practical impact be on the United States? CB: Okay, you're not gonna like the answer to this. It varies from time to time, but on average, there are fewer than 400 US troops in the Philippines, at any given time. If you talk about. GVS: 400? CB: 400. And you talk about right now, they have this exercise going on with the Air Force called Base P. So they have plus stuff at the moment right now so there are more. There are F-16’s over there at the moment right now carrying out these exercises. When Balikatan happens they'll bring over some amphibious equipment and there'll be some more things with fighter jets and whatnot. I know that they had 35 at Balikatan last year, maybe those will come back. But they move in and out throughout the region so it wouldn't be too difficult for the US to pull its forces out. But it's the strategic location to be able to go in and out so easily to be able to have those bases to go in and out of so easily that's so important. And it's the optics of it. Kind of like Patsy was talking about. This is the oldest alliance, military alliance in Asia. It goes back to the 50s, before Korea US military alliances in 53, before US Japan in the 60’s, 59 or 60. So, for them to move out and change this would be a huge deal. But on the flip side, after the optics, when you really think nuts and bolts of the military alliance, it doesn't look like anything could change military to military. They still remain strong and there are other countries in Asia that we don't have this VFA this visiting forces of greement, Thailand, for example, next week we're going to have a big exercise on you know in Thailand. There's no visiting Forces Agreement there and they still have great relations so I can see that happening it's the same policy. GVS: Aside from the optics, so, who really stands to lose, if you know, if this VFA goes away. Is it the Philippines or is it the United States? CB: I think it would be a little bit of both. Because the Philippines has prided itself on being that strong alliance with the United States. If you talk to people with the Filipino military, they're kind of trying to walk back things as much as they can, but they have to follow the President's orders at the same time. But this would also be huge for the United States, like I said, the optics for one, then you talk about the national defense strategy that the United States has focusing on China, it's really hard to keep up with what China's doing in the South China Sea. GVS: So China's probably watching this, with glee. CB: I think that they are watching this with glee. It's been no secret that Duterte wants to get closer to China. GVS: But his military doesn't… CB: But his its military doesn't. And that's because they've been militarizing in the South China Sea, which the Philippines claims, which China claims. So China looks at this as an opportunity to continue to militarize and to continue to bully in the area. And that is one thing that US officials have pushed me on. They say we are having this spat, yes the US and the Philippines are at a crossroads right now, but we can talk it out. Whereas if they were having this with China, China would bully and get their way. At least the United States has a president that… GVS: But the Philippines, Duterte hasn’t asked for anything. Like okay, we know we'll put this back on the table for X. Not yet. CB: Not yet, but that could be coming up. There was a five year agreement signed in 2015 that's going to be ending this year and a military aid package. It was almost $500 million in aid. That could be something that we see coming out later in those closed door negotiations. GVS: And of course if the Philippines get hit with a typhoon or something because US military has helped in humanitarian crises. Carla thank you. Carla Babb our VOA Pentagon correspondent. (GRETA) Foreign affairs experts have long said that having an American military presence in the Philippines is not just essential to the security of both countries but also serves as a check on China and China’s military ambitions in the South China Sea. There are also major economic variables in play involving several nations. “China’s Artificial Islands” For starters, nearly 3.5 trillion dollars worth of global trade passes through the South China Sea every year. It is a vital trade route recognized by the global community as international waters which means no one country can lay claim to it. But China has to a degree. In 2014, the Chinese started massive dredging operations to build artificial islands around several reefs located on the Paracel and Spratly island chains. Visual reconnaissance conducted by the US Navy and the US Air Force confirms buildings, roads and runways on those artificial islands. And according to a 2018 Pentagon report China placed anti-ship cruise missiles and long-range surface-to-air missiles on the Spratly Islands. US jets on occasion fly close to the islands to make the point that they have the right to do so under international law. But despite the American flyovers the Chinese have continued to build on these islands, leaving many to wonder what might happen if the US were to leave the nearby Philippines? President Rodrigo Duterte who has expressed a dislike for the United States, has openly courted China in the past. But both Filipino lawmakers and top American military officials have gone on the record to say that severing ties with the United States would leave China firmly in control of an important global trade route (GRETA) So where does the 120-year alliance between the United States and the Philippines go from here? And what is the likely impact of this to neighboring countries? My next guest says the two countries have weathered far worse storms than this. Satu Limaye is Director of the East-West Center in Washington. He is also director of the Asia Matters for America Initiative and founding editor of the Asia Pacific Bulletin. GVS: Thanks for joining us. SL: Thanks for having me. GVS: Is this a serious matter that's going on or is this just another sort of saber rattling between two presidents and sort of an international spat that’s going to vanish? SL: Well anytime a US ally makes a decision to announce the termination of a bilateral arrangement for military cooperation, it's a very serious matter. So we cannot be complacent about it. But in the long history of US - Philippine relations structurally, we've had ups and downs of a very serious nature: A Senate vote in ‘91 in the Philippines to remove US bases at Subic Bay, a natural disaster that buried in ash Clark Air Force Base, and we've recovered from those. As well as over the last couple of years under President Duterte since his election 2016. So it's serious but I think we're opening, turning a page or opening a chapter, rather than closing the book on the US-Philippine alliance. GVS: I guess, as I look at this I see the more serious issue on this is not so much, you know, Duterte and President Trump having their, you know, back and forth, but more it's like with China and the South China Sea, and if the US loses one of its footprints in that region of the world, that that changes the dynamics. I mean, I've seen China build up in Cambodia and other nations in Southeast Asia. China's on the rise there. SL: There's no question that this potentially, if it goes through and becomes final could be a win for China, perhaps for Russia even. But there's three big optics here. One is the view of the US and this administration towards alliances and maintaining them. So, this is a test case of all these discussions about whether alliances are worth it or not. Second, about the specific arrangement. And third, really, how important the US presidents in the Philippines is for our larger Indo-Pacific strategy in a context of great power competition. And other countries are going to be watching. Do we try to save this alliance, how do we do it. What are the negotiations that we do, do we offer anything, does the Philippines respond affirmatively? So in a way, it's a test case for alliance management that Japan, Strategic Framework agreements in Singapore, Thailand, Australia and others will be watching. GVS: And who controls the South China Sea? I mean, all that global trade I mean it's, you know, China is inching in a direction to control more and more of it. SL: Yes. China has definitely asserted what are quite patently, inconsistent claims: historical claims to features and this sea. But I would just say that it doesn't control the South China Sea. The US has a very robust presence in South China Sea. It’s international waters. So I don't think they have taken control of… GVS: I suppose that's true as long as it has its presence in you know, South Korea, and in the Philippines you know, that the US can fly planes in the region, but as a story, is there a chance of this getting eroded? SL: There is always a chance that we are not responding in the way we need to. But I will just say that there is general confidence that the US Force posture, US forward presence, US capabilities are still robust enough to deter. And that's really what the US forward presence and posture is about is deterrence, avoiding a conflict, not necessarily fighting one. And I think the Philippines is important to that part of that presence and posture. GVS: How important, as the rest of the world watches, this show goes all around the world, and you know if you're in Africa for instance and you're watching this, you're thinking to yourself, well that's just the Philippines and United States, we’re over here, or does this have a profound global impact? SL: As I said for the reasons that there have been articulations from this administration questioning whether alliances makes sense, they're financially worth it - they have dividends and payoffs for the American people and the American government, people will be watching in a way that they might not have been watching 20 years ago or 15 years ago for a spat that could be worked out at the Defense Department level. So I do think it has big implications. We'll just have to see. It happened on February 11, the announcement, so we're really just a couple weeks in. GVS: I guess what's a little bit different to this, I mean the President, you know, has done some saber rattling with NATO, saying maybe we'll pull out of NATO because they're not paying or whatever. I mean he has bluffed like that but in this particular instance, it's not the US walking away from the VFA, it is President Duterte who is pulling the plug on it, if indeed he pulls the plug on it. There’s 180 days to this. SL: Right. That's right. This is not a case in which the US - in fact, I just go back a year, two years - President Trump went to the Philippines, met Mr. Duterte at the East Asia Summit in 2017. Secretary Pompeo went there and restated the importance of the Alliance. Made a specific statement on the importance and applicability of the US Filipino Alliance, and here we are with Philippines responding to this issue of potentially this visa, we're not sure exactly what he's responding to, but I think that, I do think that cooler heads will prevail in the next hundred and 80 days. GVS: And the US has aided the Philippines in fighting terrorism. SL: Huge. The Marawi attack by the militant Islamists in 2017, the US intelligence reconnaissance advice, the Balikatan exercises that were mentioned earlier in your program. We are, the VFA is part of a scaffolding of the mutual defense treaty, the Enhanced Defense Cooperation arrangement, and the VFA. If you start pulling stuff out, the scaffolding could fall. But what you need to do is make sure that you reinforce it. And that's what the next 180 days needs to be about, is reinforcing that alliance. GVS: Or if you’re Duterte, you better look to China, see if China's going to step in and do all the things on terrorism and military protection and national and national disaster help. SL: Well, given China's behavior on its Uighurs in Western China, I don't think, you know, I don't think you can count on them to come to the Philippines. And also my understanding is the Chinese too are worried that the Philippine US relationship does go through ups and downs and there may be an up as a result… GVS: And we’re at a down right now. SL: We’re down right now but we could reinforce the relationship by renegotiating some elements of it and making some elements stronger. GVS: Thank you. SL: Thank you very much. GVS: Satu Limaye, Director of the East-West Center in Washington. (GRETA) Before we leave, an update on the coronavirus outbreak. Health officials in China are reporting a declining number of new cases. But the World Health Organization cautioning that it is too early to draw any conclusions from the apparent decline in new coronavirus cases in China. So far nearly two thousand people have died from coronavirus. And Health officials around the world continue to urge people to take all appropriate precautions. For instance, in Bangladesh where at least 300 thousand Rohingya refugees live in very crowded conditions in Cox's Bazar, preventive measures are being taken. Here is VOA's Kevin Enochs. (Kevin Enochs) Bangladesh health officials say the country has yet to have a positive case of Corona virus. But while the virus hasn't spread, tensions have. Special precautionary measures are being taken in Cox's Bazar, which is a border district and home to one of the world's largest refugee camps - housing at least 300,000 Rohingya. People from different countries including Chinese citizens are working on ongoing development projects and aiding the Rohingya camps. Local Government says all ports have checkpoints for testing, any incoming traffic. ((Kamal Hossain, Deputy Commissioner Cox’s bazar)) “I set up a checking point at Cox's Bazar airport and Teknaf land port. Foreigners have been kept under special surveillance including Chinese citizens. We have all kinds of preparations.” ((NARRATOR)) Isolation wards and cabins have been prepared at the Cox’s Bazar District Hospital as precautionary measures. Public awareness programs are also being implemented in the highly populated Rohingya camp. ((Dr. Mahbubur Rahman, Civil Surgeon)) “Health education is being provided at the Rohingya camp. Various programs have been taken to prevent the spread of the virus.” ((NARRATOR)) All health advisors at this time suggested basic hygiene solutions like washing hands regularly. For Muazzem Hossain Shakil in Cox’s bazar, Bangladesh, Kevin Enochs VOA News. (GRETA) That's all the time we have for today. Stay Plugged In by liking us on Facebook at Voice of America. You can also like my Facebook page at facebook-dot-com-forward-slash-Greta. And follow me on Twitter at Greta.Thanks for being Plugged In. (Closing Theme Music)